Rain or Snow Lab — Forecast Points

MILE1

BasicCounting + conditional ranges

The Point Card

Answers “what kind, and if so how much?” in one glance. Each rung is the chance of that outcome, and the line under it is what to expect if it happens.

MILE2

BasicFrequency format

Fifty-One Forecasts

Answers “how many forecasts say snow, and how much do they say?” Every tile is one ensemble member. People read counts out of a group more accurately than percentages.

Rain tiles show inches of rain. Changeover and snow tiles show inches of snow on the ground at the end. Hover or tap a tile for the member’s full totals.

MILE3

BasicMosaic plot

The Mosaic

Answers the whole joint distribution in one rectangle. Row height is the chance of each type; segment width is the chance of each amount given that type. Every block’s area is its joint probability.

Rain row in inches of rain; changeover and snow rows in inches of snow. Darker means more. Hover a block for its joint and conditional odds.

MILE4

BasicExceedance curves + joint table

Odds of At Least

Answers “what are the odds of at least 4 inches?” Drag a threshold. The table shows the joint odds of both rain and snow past a threshold, next to what you would wrongly get by multiplying them.

Snow at least Rain at least

Both at once: P(rain ≥ row and snow ≥ column)

Big number: share of members with both. Small “vs” number: the product of the two separate odds, which is what you get if rain and snow amounts were unrelated. They are not.

MILE5

IntermediateType probability by hour + accumulation fan

When It Changes

Answers “when does rain turn to snow, and how fast does it pile up?” The top bars are the chance of each type every 3 hours. The fan below is the spread of the running total.

Running total of

Fan bands: middle 50% of members (dark) and middle 80% (light). The line is the median.

MILE6

AdvancedBivariate kernel density

The Joint Cloud

Answers “why can’t I just multiply the odds?” Each dot is a member placed by total water and the share that falls as snow. The shaded cloud is the smoothed joint density; the dashed curves are equal snowfall.

MILE7

AdvancedCompositional data

The Triangle

Answers “is this a changeover or an ice storm?” Each member’s water is split three ways: rain, mixed (sleet and freezing rain), snow. Corners are 100% of one type; dot size is total water.

MILE8

AdvancedHurdle mixture model

Ridges

Answers “what’s the full range of amounts for each type?” A two-part model: first the chance of each type (the bar), then a fitted distribution for the amount given that type (the ridge). The dry outcome is the spike at zero.

Ridges are gamma fits to the member amounts (ticks underneath). Shaded band is the 10th–90th percentile; the bold line is the median.

MILE9

AdvancedScenario clustering

Storylines

Answers “what are the ways this storm could go?” Members are grouped by machine into a few storylines, each with its odds, its totals and its hour-by-hour type.

Strip: most common type in each 3-hour block for that storyline, Sat 7 AM to Mon 7 AM. Lighter means fewer members agree.

Open the Storylines drill-down → hour-by-hour members, temperature, timing, drivers, cluster confidence and run-to-run odds.

EXIT⇢

Recommendation

Where Each One Lives

Following the network rule: if a chart needs a meteorologist to read it, it belongs on Forecast Eagle.

Option	Reads in	Shows timing	Shows dependence	Home
1 · Point Card	3 seconds	No	Partly	Ship first. Header of every point page and the widget.
2 · 51 Forecasts	10 seconds	No	Yes	Tap-to-expand under the card; strong social graphic.
3 · Mosaic	15 seconds	No	Yes	Points detail view. The full table, drawn to scale.
4 · At Least	15 seconds	No	Yes (table)	Points page for decisions; joint table for Weather Trader.
5 · When It Changes	10 seconds	Yes	No	Ship second. Under the card; feeds Forecast City Today.
6 · Joint Cloud	1 minute	No	Best	Forecast Eagle; explains why the joint matters.
7 · Triangle	1 minute	No	Yes	Forecast Eagle for ice-versus-snow events.
8 · Ridges	30 seconds	No	Yes	Eagle; the fitted model behind it powers miles 1–4.
9 · Storylines	15 seconds	Yes	Yes	Ship third. Plain-language scenarios people remember.

Suggested stack for a Forecast Points page: the Point Card on top, When It Changes beneath it, Storylines as the third panel, with Fifty-One Forecasts behind a “see every forecast” tap. The hurdle model from Ridges is the engine that should feed all of them once it is calibrated against observations.